Inventory Hits Record Highs as Market Slows
The Austin real estate market continues to show signs of stress, with a new record high of 17,750 active listings across the six-county region. That’s an 18.1% increase year-over-year. The New Listing to Pending Ratio (NLPR) for the current week is starting at 0.46 and is expected to close between 0.62–0.65, signaling a substantial increase in inventory. At this pace, the market remains firmly stalled. With absorption rates below 1.0, new listings outpace buyer demand, adding further pressure on sellers.
Activity Index and Months of Inventory
The Activity Index has dropped to 20.8%, down from 24.5% on the same day last year—a 14.8% decline. Months of Inventory has now climbed to 6.32, up sharply from 5.5 just eight weeks ago. If current trends persist, we could reach 7 months of inventory within the next 30 to 45 days—officially entering buyer market territory for the first time since October 2010.
New Construction vs. Resale Performance
New construction continues to outperform resale by nearly 2x. While 23.5% of listings are new builds, they represent nearly 39% of pendings. In contrast, the resale Activity Index is just 17.38% compared to 30.33% for new construction. In cities like Del Valle, resale inventory is over 500% higher than new construction—making it incredibly difficult for resellers to compete on pricing or incentives.
Price Trends and Seller Strategy
Sellers are chasing the market down. As of June 16, 54.3% of active listings have experienced a price drop, with an average reduction of $67,000 (6.74%). In Dripping Springs, the average price cut tops $100,000. The forecast for June shows a median home price of $465,000, up $20,000 from last month—but likely to fall by month-end as lower-priced homes close. Historically, expensive homes close earlier in the month, skewing mid-month figures upward.
Submarkets & Zip Code Trends
Cedar Park, Kyle, and Hutto are among the better-performing areas, each maintaining an Activity Index over 30%. Meanwhile, areas like Marble Falls, Leander, and Georgetown are seeing surging inventory and declining buyer interest. Several Austin zip codes, including 78717, 78729, and 78739, are experiencing significant year-over-year increases in inventory—78739 leads with a 275% jump.
Forecast and Historical Context
The market continues its correction from the May 2022 peak. Median prices remain 15.45% below that high. If the market starts recovering today, it would take approximately 43 months—until December 2028—to return to that peak, assuming a 5.118% annual compound growth rate. However, current forecasts suggest another 18–24 months of price pressure before recovery begins in 2027.
Realtor Count and Sales Per Agent
The number of Realtors in the MLS has declined to 18,486, a 13.1% drop from peak levels. This reduction often trails transaction declines by 18–24 months. June is expected to tie last year’s record low for productivity, with just 146 closings per 10,000 Realtors—underscoring the intense competition for fewer deals.
Strategic Takeaway
We’re in a bifurcated market. The top 25th percentile of homes is holding up prices, while the bottom 25th has relatively modest declines. But the weight of higher-end declines now risks pulling down overall median prices. Agents must be laser-focused on local data, new construction competition, and price positioning. Your book of business must defy the macro trend.
